Today, new EV models are launching at a rate of approximately 120 a year, providing significantly more options regarding vehicle segment, performance, feature set, and value. On the supply side, this increasing demand will be met with a broader set of choices. However, the pace of change tells a different story, with annual sales’ growth rates now frequently in the range of 100 percent or more. Sales in 2018 only provide a partial view, given that EVs accounted for less than 5 percent of sales in most markets. This trend is even more pronounced among customers younger than 50 years old living in urban areas. Power, February 26, 2018, China Youth Daily, August 2018,. 3 “Consumers in China increasingly enthusiastic about new-energy vehicles and eager for battery technology advancement, J.D. and in China, it was over 70 percent, given the presence of strong government incentives to adopt these vehicles. Knupfer, Nicolaas Kramer, Nicholas Laverty, and Patrick Schaufuss, “ Electrifying insights: How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability,” January 2017 “Electric Vehicles Survey results,” Dalia Research, November 1, 2016,. In Europe, the reported share of consumers considering EV purchase was higher, at 40 to 60 percent, 2 Russell Hensley, Patrick Hertzke, Stefan M. drivers want an electric vehicle,” AAA NewsRoom, May 8, 2018, Hoang Nguyen, “Middle of the road: An analysis of the automotive sector,” YouGov, January 9, 2019,. Knupfer, Nicolaas Kramer, Nicholas Laverty, and Patrick Schaufuss, “ Electrifying insights: How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability,” January 2017 “AAA: 1-in-5 U.S. 1 Russell Hensley, Patrick Hertzke, Stefan M. In the United States, between 10 and 30 percent of consumers indicated their preference to consider an EV as their next purchase on national surveys. The share of global consumers that would consider purchasing an EV is on the rise. Consumer preferences on electric vehiclesĬonsumers’ EV preferences are shifting. Understanding the challenges and opportunities for OEMs requires examination of the changing landscape of consumer attitudes, product availability, EV economics, and regulatory tailwinds. Some of these options include aggressively reducing cost through “decontenting,” optimizing range for urban mobility, partnering with other automakers to reduce R&D and capital expenditures, targeting specific customer segments, and exploring battery leasing. Our analyses show that better options exist, even today, to accelerate the industry toward profitability from both product and business-model perspectives. Current thinking holds that the industry will continue to produce EVs-largely because it has little alternative in the face of stringent fuel-economy and emissions policies-and that the industry will, in the meantime, absorb the losses. As industry battery prices decline, perhaps five to seven years from now, the economics of EVs should shift from red to green. Battery costs represent the largest single factor in this price differential. Many carmakers appear to be resigned to this fate, at least for now.
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